Tim Sullivan


My general area of research is uncertainty quantification, at the intersection of applied mathematics, probability, statistics, and computational science. A common theme underlying many of my current research interests is to add ‘the right amount of uncertainty’ to an otherwise certain or near-certain prediction, in order to correctly compensate for over-confidence in the modelling process. In the words of Julian Baggini:

The mark of a mature, psychologically healthy mind is indeed the ability to live with uncertainty and ambiguity, but only as much as there really is.

My research is funded by the Free University of Berlin within the Excellence Initiative of the German Research Foundation (DFG). I am also a co-PI on the ECMath project CH15 “Analysis of Empirical Shape Trajectories” and the PI of the DFG-funded project A06 “Enabling Bayesian uncertainty quantification for multiscale systems and network models via mutual likelihood-informed dimension reduction”, which is part of the Collaborative Research Centre SFB 1114 “Scaling Cascades in Complex Systems”.

I have also received support from

  • the King's College London – Freie Universität Berlin Funding Programme for Joint Research Workshops;
  • the University of Warwick International Partnership Fund;
  • the US Department of Energy NNSA (award DE-FC52-08NA28613), through the California Institute of Technology’s ASC/PSAAP Center for the Predictive Modeling and Simulation of High Energy Density Dynamic Response of Materials;
  • the US Junior Oberwolfach Fellows project (NSF Grant 0540019);
  • the Oberwolfach Leibniz Graduate Students programme;
  • the University of Warwick Research Development Fund.